United States Internet
Council
&
ITTA Inc.
Foreword
Why this study?
In April 1999, the United
States Internet Council released our first "State of the Internet"
report to summarize key trends in the development of a social,
political, and economic communications revolution that has emerged on
the world stage in just a few years.
When President Bill Clinton
took office in January 1993, most Americans outside of government and
academic circles were completely unaware of the Internet as it then
existed. Perhaps fewer than 90,000 people worldwide used the net at
that time on a regular basis.
In the summer of 2000,
industry monitors estimate more than 300 million people worldwide are
using the net on a frequent basis for business, research, shopping,
personal correspondence, social interactions, entertainment, listening
to radio, and communications and information-sharing functions of
every description.
The number of people using
this still-young medium has grown in a geometric progression. The
current online population is more than 3,000 times the number of
people who were online just seven years ago.
Five years from now, some
industry estimates predict that the number of users worldwide will
pass the one-billion mark, with more than 700 million users living
outside of North America. Already, users who speak English as their
primary language constitute only a little more than half of all
persons using the net. Those who speak English as a second language
and the number of web sites hosted in the U.S. are two factors that
will continue to support the dominance of English on the Internet for
a few more years to come. Nevertheless, the trend noted in our 1999
report to more non-English web sites and content, along with more
sites hosted outside English-speaking countries, continues to be a
prominent feature in this year's analysis.
For these reasons, this
year's report contains far more information about global trends and
emerging Internet markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia and the Pacific
Rim. While the net continues to be heavily influenced by American use
and culture, the diversity of net users continues last year's trends
in every way.
This summer, for the first
time, women using the net have surpassed men in the United States.
Racial, economic, and other manifestations of what was called the
"digital divide" in our 1999 report continue to show that the
diversity of users is accelerating.
Our last section, "Looking
Forward," presents some of our recommendations for both government
policy and self-regulatory frameworks that are being developed by
industry.
In this regard, it is useful
and important for officials in government and users of the Internet
alike to recognize that just as the net is changing the way we live
our lives, it will also fundamentally challenge and change how we
govern.
Those nations, states,
corporations, and citizens who adapt to the net's constant innovation
will continue to thrive.
William C.
Myers Charles W. Dyke
Chief Executive
Officer President and CEO
United States Internet
Council International Technology
& Trade Associates, Inc.
Preface &
Acknowledgments
The Internet has
become a powerful research tool. With over 2 billion unique,
indexable pages, the Internet today offers what often seems to be an
unending reservoir of information and knowledge. This year’s “State
of the Internet 2000” report was researched primarily on the Internet,
drawing from media and other publicly available resources. The
authors have also included personal insights and applied their
expertise in a concise and targeted manner to provide an easily
accessible overview of the state of the Internet and the forces,
practices, and technologies that are changing this dynamic medium.
The report itself employs parenthetical references by section. A full
list of references is included at the end of the report. Any
omissions or oversights are the responsibility of the report’s
authors.
This year’s
report was written and researched by International Technology and
Trade Associates (ITTA), Inc., for the United States Internet
Council. ITTA writers included Douglas F. Ramsey (Analyst), Erica
Colberg (Analyst), and George M. Dryden (Manager, Defense and
Government Systems). Section 3.3 (Wireless) was written by
Robert G. Allen, Director of the ITTA Telecommunications Consulting
Group and section 3.4 (Broadcasting) was written by Kara
Steele, Executive Director of the Center for the New West. Section 5.
(Looking Forward) was provided by the staff of the U.S.
Internet Council which include CEO Bill Myers, Vice President Mark Q.
Rhoads, and Senior Fellow Gordon S. Jones, who also provided editorial
support.
ITTA Inc. (www.itta.com)
is an international business consulting company with offices in
Washington, D.C., and Brussels, Belgium. ITTA is a U.S. Internet
Council corporate member and represents the Council internationally.
Executive Summary
This year’s
report, The State of the Internet 2000, provides an overview of
the continuing expansion of the Internet and gives special attention
to the increasingly international nature of the Internet. The
Internet has far surpassed its humble beginnings as the Department of
Defense’s ARPANET. It has become truly global in scope, growing more
so with each passing day. The Internet draws people of all countries,
cultures, and languages. This year over 300 million people are
online, with fewer than half from North America. This gap is expected
to widen further, as the world’s online population becomes more
nationally and culturally diverse and less “U.S.-centric.”
The Global
Growth section focuses on emerging Internet populations in various
regions of the world. Online growth in areas such as the Asia-Pacific
region and Latin America has surpassed expectations as e-commerce
initiatives and personal Internet use have blossomed. Despite the
bright outlook for continued Internet penetration, there is a
significant global digital divide, primarily between the North and
South. For example, only 1.5 million people are online in Africa, 1
million of whom are in South Africa. Poverty and inadequate
telecommunications infrastructure in the developing world must be
alleviated in order for Internet use to become fully established.
The section on
Social Trends provides a discussion of the fundamental changes
taking place in the way people communicate and conduct business.
Although the digital divide still exists in the U.S., tremendous
strides have been made in eliminating it, thus permitting more
Americans to communicate via the Internet and opening up a world of
new opportunities to low-income families. The Internet is quickly
becoming an essential part of every classroom as students at all
levels of education utilize it to do research and participate in a
variety of online educational activities. Additionally, the emergence
of virtual communities has drawn the world closer together as people
from all walks of life may speak to each other in chat rooms and find
a community with similar interests.
As highlighted
in the Technology section, new technologies continue to
transform how the Internet is used. Technologies such as XML,
wireless Internet, and encryption are being standardized, thus
strengthening e-commerce initiatives and other Internet activities.
Alongside these new technologies, however, come new threats such as
cyber-terrorism. The U.S. and the international community have made
significant advances in tracking and halting hacking and other forms
of cyber-terrorism.
Perhaps the
E-Business section provides the best glimpse into the future of
the Internet, which has given industry an entirely new way of
conducting business. Companies have revolutionized industry
practices, creating greater efficiency and monetary savings.
E-commerce has similarly exploded with online retailing and industry
marketplaces. Business-to-consumer and business-to-business
e-commerce promise to continue seizing an increasingly larger share of
the goods and services market in the coming years. Outside the U.S.,
companies have begun to take note of the online successes of North
American businesses and are starting to follow suit.
The concluding
section, entitled Looking Forward, examine future government
and industry Internet challenges. Although most governments have
maintained a laissez-faire approach to the online industry, there is
more and more pressure by citizens concerned about privacy and
security for some degree of regulation and monitoring. Within the
U.S. and European countries, legislative bodies have already
instituted minor measures geared towards the protection of personal
information. Without a doubt, greater Internet regulation will occur
in the coming years; however, industry and government should work
together to insure that any regulation fully supports the continued
growth of the Internet economy while protecting the interests of
individuals. This is not just a national effort. The countries and
companies of the world must collaborate and standardize guidelines for
the Internet industry to avoid costly international disputes and to
continue the dissemination of Internet technology to the entire
world.
Overall, we can
safely say that the State of the Internet is good. Rising
technologies, new applications, and expanding usage indicate that the
Internet will continue to grow. Although it remains possible that
governments might smother the Internet in regulation, early signs
suggest that this is unlikely. The Internet should continue to evolve
into an open and global information environment, which we hope it can
become.
Table of Contents
Click on a section name to download it.
|
Foreword |
|
|
|
iii |
|
Preface |
|
|
|
v |
|
Executive Summary |
|
|
|
vii |
|
Section 1. |
The
Global Net |
1 - 18 |
|
|
|
1.1 |
Global
Growth |
2 |
|
|
|
1.2 |
North
America |
6 |
|
|
|
1.3 |
Europe |
9 |
|
|
|
1.4 |
Asia-Pacific |
12 |
|
|
|
1.5 |
Developing Country Forecast |
15 |
|
Section 2. |
Social
Trends |
19 - 32 |
|
|
|
2.1 |
Digital
Divide |
20 |
|
|
|
2.2 |
Virtual
Communities |
22 |
|
|
|
2.3 |
Education |
24 |
|
|
|
2.4 |
Mobile
Internet |
27 |
|
|
|
2.5 |
Government Online |
29 |
|
Section 3. |
Technology |
33 - 44 |
|
|
|
3.1 |
Standards |
34 |
|
|
|
3.2 |
Security |
36 |
|
|
|
3.3 |
Wireless |
39 |
|
|
|
3.4 |
Broadcasting |
42 |
|
Section 4. |
Electronic Business |
45 - 56 |
|
|
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4.1 |
Internet
Business Models |
46 |
|
|
|
4.2 |
Internet
Business Penetration |
49 |
|
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|
4.3 |
E-commerce Trends & Forecasts |
51 |
|
Section 5. |
Looking
Forward |
57 - 61 |
|
References |
i - ix |
United States Internet Council (USIC)
1301 K Street, NW
Suite 350, East Tower
Washington D.C., 20005
e-mail:
mark.rhoads@usic.org
Tel: (+1) 202-789-8150
Fax: (+1) 202-789-8160
www.usic.org
International Technology and
Trade Associates (ITTA) Inc.
1330 Connecticut Avenue, NW
Suite 210
Washington D.C. 20036-1704
e-mail: info@itta.com
Tel: (+1) 202-828-2614
Fax: (+1) 202-828-2617
www.itta.com